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Friday, January 23, 2009

The UK Property Market Turns to the East

According to recent figures from the National Association of Estate Agents, First Time Buyers are slowly returning to the housing market. However, even though the % of total houses sold to FTB's is increasing I feel there are two key facts that the hype is hiding.

The NAEA like to think that there is a group of canny young people out there building up their deposits and biding their time for a real bargain to come on in their desired area. I would predict that the truth of the matter is much more mundane.

Firstly, FTB's are not flooding back into the market. The reality is that the percentage of FTB's as buyers has simply increased because another group of purchasers - the Buy to Let investors have disappeared so completely. There are actually much less FTB's now than previously - they are just taking up a bigger share of the ever decreasing pie. Lies, damned lies and statistics methinks!

Secondly, and this one is interesting, I'd wager my mortgage that a greater than expected proportion of FTB's in 2008 will have come from the Eastern European community. Since 2004 thousands of Eastern Europeans have headed to the UK, seeking a better future since their countries joined the European Union. They have come from the eight former communist states of Poland, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Slovakia and Slovenia. Many have returned to their home countries but those who have decided to stay are reaching the natural progression from renting into home ownership. They have bank accounts, work long hours, clean credit records and low levels of debt. They may have saved up sizable deposits - they have less fussy tastes than your average Brit FTB. In essence they are doing everything as it should be done.

So next time you see the figures remember that the house down the road with the young couple moving in is more likely to have been bought by the Piotrowski's than the Patterson's.

Therefore, amazingly enough, it is the determination of the immigrant community that will help the UK housing market pick up. In "Mortgages, Money and Magic" I set out an easy to follow plan which shows how any couple, making an average amount of money, can buy a property without putting down a deposit and then go on to own that property outright within 10 years. This plan is ideally suited to young Eastern European couple who are thinking about getting onto the UK property ladder.

No-one can actually predict the future but imagine this situation:

2008 Buy a UK property for 100,000
2008 to 2018 Pay down the mortgage
2018 Sell property for 200,000
2019 Return to Poland with a Kings' ransom?

In conclusion, don't believe the hype you read in the papers - the figures are juggled to suit the writer's world view but if you are a young Eastern European couple then you may well find that the current economic outcome is the best thing that could ever happen to you!

If you are Polish, Hungarian, Romanian, Slovakian, Lithuanian, Latvian or from anywhere else in Eastern Europe you need to learn how to get onto the UK housing ladder. Learn more at http://www.uncommonadvice.co.uk/ebooks/mortgages_money_magic

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