Should you move forward with your project or wait for the economy to get better?
The popular game show Deal or No Deal allows contestants the opportunity to win one million dollars. The concept seems simple enough. First a contestant chooses a briefcase that they hope contains the million dollars. Then they must choose between the remaining briefcases that hopefully have a dollar amount less than one million dollars. At each segment of the game they have to choose so many brief cases to see what dollar amounts are left in play. At the end of that round the banker on the show makes them a deal for cash if they will stop at that point. His deal is supposedly based upon the odds that their briefcase contains the million dollars or at least a high dollar amount. They can walk away with what is offered or hold out hope that the brief case they have chosen contains the million dollars. The host after each bankers offer asks the contestant, "Deal or no deal?" I have not watched it much but every time I have I have yet to see anyone walk away with really a million dollars. Most seem to pass up the good deals and ultimately settle for less than they hoped for.
That game show reminds me of what Christian leaders are faced with when they consider whether or not to move forward with that multi-million dollar project now or to wait for the economy to get better. The difference for us is that this is not a show. For us the question is not, "Deal or no Deal?" The question is, "Go now or wait until later?"
We are risking far more than simply losing out on some dollars. We risk the loss of momentum, time, growth and even our own standing in our ministry. You might feel like some of the contestants that have to make a decision quickly and are as uncertain as they are about what to do. While we can not give you the answer since each ministries setting and situation is different we can give you some factors to ponder.
While considering whether to go now or wait until later consider these factors...
1. The Economy Factor. This is the number one issue in America today. It is what is on everyone's mind and what everyone is talking about. It is also the number one factor to consider as you contemplate raising funds for your ministry.
Why the economy is on everyone's mind.
1. It's an election year. The party out of power will always focus on any weaknesses in the economy in an effort to win the election. Sadly our politicians too often seem interested in pointing fingers of blame rather than creating solutions.
2. The press loves a bad story. There is an old adage in the media that blood leads. The same is true for bad economic news. The press and the talking heads will continue to focus on the negative even when things start to turn around.
3. It is less than glowing! While some might argue that we are not "technically" in a recession it sure does feel like a recession. Remember, perception is the cruelest form of reality! The truth is that these are challenging times economically. To say otherwise is to ignore the obvious!
As a result of this economy you need to realize...
A. Pledges will be less. While this might not be the news you want to hear it is the truth none the less. There is unease in our nation today about the economy that will show up on the pledge card you put into your donors hands. The factors for this unease range from the war, rising unemployment, the housing crisis, the credit crunch, the roller coaster stock market and fuel costs to name just a few consumer concerns. Pledges are coming in much more conservative now than in years past. A wise leader will set his expectations much lower.
B. Banks will be more cautious. While interest rates are lower than ever as the Feds try to stimulate the economy banks are showing a more cautious approach to lending. A banker friend of mine recently wrote, "We are already seeing it in the fact it is taking the banks longer to make credit decisions as they review each credit much more thorough. There is less emphasis on booking new quantity business and more emphasis on booking quality business. Tighter credit reviews."
What this means for you is that you must have a solid package presented to your bank and that even then it might take longer to get that financing you need to begin your project. While not impossible to get funding we are counseling our clients to start the process as soon as possible and to seek the help of a professional to help you through this challenging stage
Are you prepared to meet and beat the economy factor? No one knows how long this present down turn will last but the wise Christian leader develops a plan to navigate through this time.
2. The Bird in the Hand Factor. Remember the old saying, "A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush? That saying applies to the possibility that if you move forward with your project and campaign you might see less pledged rather than more. However, let's say you only pledge one times your budget over three years time. That amount is still more than you would have if you had not asked for commitments.
You need to realize that 90% of your donors will not save their money for when you do hold your campaign. They will either spend it on something or give it to someone else. While you wait for the perfect time for your campaign other ministries will be fishing in your pond pulling out your fish. You have to decide if you want to fish our cut bait!
3. The Momentum Factor. You have to ask if delaying your campaign while you wait for the economy to improve will cost you momentum in growth. It may be that you can get by without that new addition for another year. You might think of more creative ways to provide more space. If you can do that to sustain your growth you might have an argument for delaying the next project for a short time. However, realize that in our experience new buildings typically result in a 10% to 30% increase in attendance and a 10% to 30% increase in offerings. So, the delay might end up costing you more than if you moved ahead now. Again no one knows how long this will last. Waiting for the perfect climate might cause you to wait two, three or five years. Can you afford to delay this long?
4. The History Factor. The only real way to predict our future is to understand our past. In the history of our nation economically challenging times last only for a season and then prosperity comes back around. Every time the stock market has crashed it has always rebounded stronger and higher than before the crash. In some year's of recession giving actually increased while in others the decline was not severe. Each time period after a recession giving always increases.
During the early 80's unemployment was at double digits and interest rates ran from 15% to 18%. What did churches do? They still built and hoped that rates would drop and that they could refinance. That is exactly what happened. While the present time might be a challenge you can expect things to turn around.
5. The God Factor. As Christian we base what we do not upon the circumstances around us but upon the revealed will of God. The bottom line must always be what is God saying to us? Each leader must prayerfully consider what I call the God factor. This does not mean you do not consider the above factors. What it does mean is that you get your marching orders about whether to move forward or not from He who owns the cattle on a thousand hills. The Scriptures teach us that, "If God be for us, who can be against us?" Despite challenging economic times, when you have a God vision you can and will be successful.
I am reminded of what the late great evangelist Manly Beasley said, "My problems are a platform upon which God can work a miracle!" Don't let the challenge of our present situation derail you from pursuing the dreams and visions that God has given you. It might not be as easy as it once was but again it is an opportunity to see God at work. I believe that what God initiates He also enables! Take all the factors in hand, make wise decisions but never cease to continue to move forward for the Kingdom!
Mark Brooks
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